Latest forecast! Expert: The second round of infection may peak in March to May

According to the latest prediction of Tongji experts, the second round of infection may peak from March to May

On January 31, Wuhan Evening News (reporter Jiang Mengqing, correspondent Deng Guohuan), a hot search recently attracted public attention, and experts said that COVID-19 was a bit "passed". Is the virus weakened? Will there be another round of infection peak? Will I be infected again?

At 3:00 p.m. on January 31, Changjiang Daily invited Professor Xing Mingyou, the chief physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Tongji Hospital affiliated to Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, to answer your questions one by one.

Professor Xing Mingyou answered the concerns of netizens live. Photographed by reporter Liu Pai

Is the infection rate falling because the virus is not moving?

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently released the national novel coronavirus infection situation, showing that the COVID-19 infection rate is on the decline. The epidemic has not rebounded significantly in the past Spring Festival. Why did everyone go home to visit relatives or friends, but the epidemic did not worsen?

Professor Xing Mingyou said that the decline of infection rate does not mean that the virus has weakened. The actual virus still exists in our lives. The reason why the virus does not move is that the vast majority of people have "passed", and there are antibodies in the body, forming a group immune barrier. Secondly, with the progress of the virus epidemic, the toxicity and pathogenicity of the virus are gradually weakening. With the strengthening of various protective measures, such as consciously wearing masks and keeping social distance, the spread of COVID-19 will slow down in the short term, and the number of infected people will decline.

Experts predict that the second round of infection will peak in March and May

From the perspective of virology and epidemiology, the antibody level in the body after "Yangkang" will maintain a relatively high peak in 3 to 6 months, and the probability of reinfection in a short time is only 2%. However, the population base of our country is very large. Since December last year, after three to six months, our antibody level has declined slowly. At this time, if there are new virus variants, we are very likely to have clinical symptoms after re-infection, and may still peak.

In the live broadcast, Professor Xing Mingyou predicted that the second round of infection peak might come from March to May, but the people at this peak might not feel so obvious. Because of the difference in the time of infection, and because of the existence of a basic antibody level after our second infection, the number of people infected in the second round, the severity of infection symptoms, and the extent of time concentration will be much weaker than the first one.

How to prevent secondary infection after "Yangkang"?

"COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets to prevent secondary infection. Wearing masks firmly is still the most important line of personal health defense." Professor Xing Mingyou reminded that masks must be worn regularly, especially in crowded public places. It is enough for ordinary people to wear medical surgical masks according to the normal travel regulations. In some high-risk positions and environments, the probability of infection increases and N95 masks are required.

Six months after "Yangkang", the antibodies produced after our first infection have disappeared, so it is necessary to reseed and strengthen the vaccine. Vaccination can delay the time of infection, or reduce the probability of infection. Three groups of people are recommended to give priority to vaccination: First, they are engaged in high-risk jobs such as doctors and couriers; 2、 Elderly patients with basic diseases, such as diabetes, hypertension, cancer or dialysis patients who have received transplantation; 3、 Pneumonia appeared in the first infection. People with severe symptoms who had been hospitalized must be vaccinated with enhanced vaccine six months after the first "Yangkang". In addition, everyone should be the first responsible person for their own health, maintain social distance and develop good hygiene habits, which can largely prevent the second infection. In case of secondary infection, Professor Xing Mingyou stressed that it must not be carried hard at home and should be treated as soon as possible to avoid developing into severe disease.

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