2023-01-31 10:34:01

The tide of "interest reduction" of the

After the central bank and the CBRC announced the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the interest rate policy of the first housing loan, the interest rate of the first housing loan has been adjusted in many places. On January 30, a reporter from the Beijing Business Daily found that Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Zhanjiang, Shaoguan and other places have joined the "interest rate reduction" team of the first housing loan. The current interest rate of the first housing mortgage loan implemented by many banks in these cities has entered the "3" era, with a minimum of 3.7%. With the establishment of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the interest rate of the first house loan, the policy of easing the lower limit of the interest rate of the first house loan gradually becomes normalized. Analysts expect that there will be more cities to follow up and adjust in the future, and the interest rate of some cities with high real estate sales pressure may decline significantly. It is suggested that the groups with housing demand can choose the opportunity to enter the market according to their own needs.

"Interest rate reduction" of the first housing loan in many places

Many places have joined the ranks of the first mortgage interest rate decline. On January 30, a reporter from the Beijing Business Daily learned from many banks in Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan that the interest rate of the mortgage loan for the first house in the above-mentioned areas has been reduced, and has officially entered the "3" era.

The housing loan manager of a branch of Central Plains Bank said that since January 29, the interest rate of the bank's first suite loan has been reduced to 3.8%, and the specific implementation date is uncertain. The staff of the local branches of many state-owned banks in Zhengzhou also introduced that on January 29, the interest rate of the first house loan had been reduced from 4.1% to 3.8%. As for the reasons for the adjustment, the housing loan manager of a branch of a state-owned bank revealed that the adjustment was mainly made according to the central bank's policies. The specific implementation time of the existing interest rate and whether it will be raised in the future need to be notified.

It is understood that on January 5, the Central Bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on the Establishment of a Long-term Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism for the Interest Rate Policy of the First Housing Personal Loan (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), and decided to establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the interest rate policy of the first housing loan. For cities where the sales price of new commercial residential buildings has declined for three consecutive months on a month-on-month basis and year-on-year basis, the lower limit of the local first housing loan interest rate policy can be maintained, lowered or cancelled in a phased manner.

In addition to Zhengzhou, according to the requirements of the Notice, Tianjin Branch of the People's Bank of China revealed in an interview with the media that the city has implemented the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the loan interest rate of the first house since January 2023, and the lower limit of the loan interest rate "is not less than the corresponding period LPR-40BP". On January 30, the Beijing Business Daily reporter learned from many banks in Tianjin that the loan interest rate of the first house in Tianjin is currently 3.9%. The staff of a local branch of a state-owned bank in Tianjin said that the interest rate of the first house loan was 3.9%, and the specific implementation would be adjusted according to the individual situation. The housing loan manager of Tianjin local branch of another state-owned bank also said that the interest rate of the first housing loan was implemented according to "LPR-40BP", which is currently 3.9%.

Wuhan is also the city where the interest rate of the first house loan was "reduced". From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the interest rate of the first house loan in Wuhan has experienced frequent adjustment. According to the real estate loan manager of a large state-owned bank in Wuhan, the interest rate has risen to 4.1% at the beginning of this year after the first house loan interest rate was cut to 3.9% in a phased manner last year, and since the issuance of the dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first house loan interest rate, the interest rate has been reduced to 3.9%, which is still implemented at 3.9%, but the specific interest rate depends on the real estate.

With regard to the reduction of the loan interest rate of the first house in many places, Guan Rongxue, senior analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that the main reason may be that he hopes to promote the recovery of the real estate market as soon as possible by making good use of the price tools, accelerate the product liberalization, and increase the liquidity and trust of the real estate industry. At the same time, promoting the further release of housing demand and boosting housing consumption can also enhance the pull of the real estate sector on the local economy, and promote the market to recover as soon as possible and gradually enter a virtuous circle of development. For home buyers, it is good news. The reduction of the interest rate on the first home loan means that the total amount of interest paid by home buyers is reduced, which moderately alleviates the pressure on home buyers.

Periodic adjustment of interest rate due to urban policies

The housing loan interest rate policy is linked to and dynamically adjusted with the price trend of new housing. According to the requirements of the Notice, the lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first housing can be gradually relaxed in cities where the sales price of new commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months on a month-on-month basis and year-on-year basis. However, if the sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings rises for three consecutive months in the subsequent evaluation period, the lower limit of the national commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first housing should be resumed from the next quarter.

According to the data provided by the think-tank center of the E-House Research Institute, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities of the National Bureau of Statistics, 35 cities, including Dalian, Lanzhou, Jiujiang, Shaoguan and Zhanjiang, meet the requirement of gradually relaxing the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing, in addition to Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan.

Earlier, the People's Government of Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province, announced that the lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first housing in the city was adjusted to LPR-30BP from January 18. If the sales price of new commercial housing rose for three consecutive months on a month-on-month basis and year-on-year basis, the lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first housing in the country will be resumed from the next quarter.

On January 30, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily learned from a branch of Jiujiang Bank that the loan interest rate of the bank's first suite had been reduced from 4.1% to 4%. However, the pace of interest rate adjustment of the first house loan of various banks is different. According to the survey, the interest rate of the first house loan of some state-owned banks and joint-stock banks in Jiujiang region has not changed temporarily, still at 4.1%.

Zhanjiang and Shaoguan also implemented a phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing according to the official announcement of the Notice. The Beijing Business Daily reporter learned from many banks in Zhanjiang and Shaoguan that at present, the loan interest rate of the first house in both places has been reduced. A staff member of Zhanjiang Branch of a joint-stock bank said that the interest rate of the first house loan had dropped to 3.9% at present; According to the loan manager of Shaoguan Sub-branch of a state-owned bank, the interest rate of the bank's first house loan has been adjusted from 4.1% to 3.7%.

However, at present, the interest rate of the first home loan in Dalian, Lanzhou and other places has not been adjusted. The Beijing Business Daily reporter learned from several bank outlets in Dalian and Lanzhou that the loan interest rate of the first house in Dalian has not changed, and is still 3.95%, while many bank people in Lanzhou said that the loan interest rate of the first house has been 4.1% since last October.

Speaking of the trend of the interest rate of the first home loan in various regions in the future, Guan Rongxue believes that the banks that have not been adjusted at present will probably follow up. The interest rate will depend on the current market supply and demand and the income of residents in various regions. Most cities may adjust to around 3.8% - 3.9%, and some cities with high real estate sales pressure may be lower than 3.8%. In addition, this is a dynamic adjustment mechanism, and there may be cities in line with the adjustment in the future, so it may not be limited to these 38 cities.

The Beijing Business Daily reporter found that at present, the interest rate of the first house loan in Beijing has not changed, and is still implemented according to "LPR+55BP". The housing loan manager of a state-owned bank in Beijing said, "The housing loan policy implemented in each city is different. The first house loan in Beijing is based on LPR+55BP, and the LPR has not been adjusted in recent months to 4.3%, so the loan interest rate has been 4.85%".

Is there any adjustment space

Since September last year, the favorable policies of housing loans have been frequent. At that time, the Central Bank and the CBRC have issued a notice to relax the lower limit of the interest rate of the first housing loans in some cities. For cities where the sales price of new commercial residential houses has dropped continuously from June to August 2022 on a month-on-month basis and year-on-year basis, the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing can be relaxed by the end of 2022. Since then, several cities, such as Jining and Qingyuan, have lowered the interest rate of the first home mortgage, and the mortgage rate of the first home mortgage implemented by many banks in these cities has dropped below 4%.

In the view of industry insiders, the establishment of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first home loan means that the policy of easing the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan gradually becomes normalized. Yan Yuejin, the research director of E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the current number one document on economic revitalization in all regions takes boosting housing consumption as an important work. For other cities, especially second-tier cities such as Dalian, Fuzhou, Harbin and Lanzhou, it is necessary to timely adjust the loan interest rate of the first set of housing according to the market situation, create conditions for the good start of the real estate market in February, and also set a benchmark for the policy relaxation of other cities in the province.

The reporter of the Beijing Business Daily noted that while the interest rate of the mortgage loan for the first house in many places fell, the interest rate of the provident fund loan also ushered in a positive trend. On January 30, the Changsha Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the Notice on Clarifying the Individual Loan Multiple in 2023, which proposed that the loan limit of the employees (including the sub-centers directly under the provincial government) deposited in Changsha should be calculated as 16 times the sum of the balance of the housing provident fund accounts of the borrower and his wife, and should be implemented as of February 1.

Yan Yuejin said that the increase in the loanable multiple of Changsha provident fund fully reflects the orientation of Changsha provident fund policy to support the purchase of houses. Such adjustment has increased from 15 times in the past, fully indicating that the current loan limit has been further expanded, which has a positive effect on the acquisition of loan funds for home buyers.

According to the survey report of urban depositors in the fourth quarter of 2022 issued by the Central Bank, when asked about the projects to increase spending in the next three months, 16% of residents chose to buy houses, ranking one higher than the third quarter of 2022.

As for the changes in the interest rate of the first home loan in the future, Guan Rongxue predicted that it is still important to promote the recovery of housing consumption as soon as possible for the development of all regions. Therefore, the housing purchase environment is still loose in the short term, and the interest rate of the first home loan still has some downward space. However, as the local economy and the income of residents in all fields are still in the recovery stage, the housing purchase situation in the first quarter will be mainly stable, and the second quarter is expected to have a relatively obvious improvement. At present, the credit environment is relatively loose, and groups with housing purchase needs can choose the opportunity to enter the market according to their own needs. At the same time, they should also pay attention to the funds and reputation of developers.

Yan Yuejin believes that, on the whole, it is expected that the housing loan interest rate will decline further, which will play a positive role in reducing the purchase cost of home buyers and boosting the real estate market transaction.