2023-01-30 10:50:01

After the A-share festival, the "good start&q

。 2023-01-30 02:37:12 Source: network Code scanning can: 1. Browse on mobile phone 2. Share to WeChat friends or circle of friends

.. Summary:. After the collective rebound of European and American stock markets overnight, today's Asia-Pacific market is also in a general upward pattern. Although the A-share market did not participate in it because of the short and long holiday of the Spring Festival, the external market was generally warm, which also created a good external environment for a good start after the holiday. There is one last data landing tonight, which is related to the US interest rate resolution next week. Body summary:

After the collective rebound of European and American stock markets overnight, today's Asia-Pacific market is also in a general upward pattern. Although the A-share market did not participate in it because of the short and long holiday of the Spring Festival, the external market was generally warm, which also created a good external environment for a good start after the holiday. Tonight, there is still one final data landing, which is related to the US interest rate resolution next week. What will be the impact on A-share after the holiday? In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.92%, the state-owned enterprise index rose 3.88%, and the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index rose 5.35%. There was no suspense about the high opening of A shares after the holiday. However, as long as the US stock market does not fall sharply tonight, the basic weekly rise has been stable, and the Asia-Pacific market has given feedback in advance, so in a comprehensive way, this is also the logic of Dago's judgment that the A-share market has opened steadily after the holiday. The holiday balance is insufficient, so hurry up and get ready for a good start! After the A-share festival, the "good start" has basically stabilized? Just follow Xiao Bian to see what happened.

After the collective rebound of European and American stock markets overnight, today's Asia-Pacific market is also in a general upward pattern. Although the A-share market did not participate in it because of the short and long holiday of the Spring Festival, the external market was generally warm, which also created a good external environment for a good start after the holiday. Tonight, there is still one final data landing, which is related to the US interest rate resolution next week. What will be the impact on A-share after the holiday?

After the A-share festival, the

According to the statistics of the main peripheral stock markets, the Asia-Pacific index rose this week, with the Nikkei index up 3.12%, the Korean KOSPI index up 3.71%, and the Australian common stock index up 0.56%. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.92%, the state-owned enterprise index rose 3.88%, and the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index rose 5.35%. There was no suspense about the high opening of A shares after the holiday.

From the perspective of European and American stock markets, as of the announcement, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell by 0.05% this week, the DAX30 index in Germany rose by 0.65%, the CAC40 index in France rose by 1.50%, and the Stoxx 50 index in Europe rose by 1.32%. The three major US indices have not yet opened, but the Dow is up 1.72%, the Nasdaq is up 3.34%, and the S&P 500 is up 2.21%.

It is obvious that the performance of indexes varies greatly among countries. Of course, this is also directly related to the economic situation of countries and the position of stock indexes. However, as long as the US stock market does not fall sharply tonight, the basic weekly rise has been stable, and the Asia-Pacific market has given feedback in advance, so in a comprehensive way, this is also the logic of Dago's judgment that the A-share market has opened steadily after the holiday.

However, next week will also face the impact of the pace of the US interest rate hike, and the US senior management has entered the silent period on the eve of the interest rate hike. So the last core data released tonight is of great significance, that is, the core inflation index, the annual rate of core PCE price index in December, which is the core inflation index that the US senior leaders pay more attention to. This data will end the year of economic turbulence and bring new hope for 2023.

After the A-share festival, the

Considering the US CPI data, the GDP data in December and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week are both at a year-on-year downward pace. The market expects that PCE is expected to fall along with PPI and CPI, while the slowing inflation data will trigger the market's hope that the Federal Reserve may give up a substantial interest rate increase and inject optimism into the market.

This is also a direct boost to the sharp rise of US stocks last night. Because the Bank of Canada, which is more similar to the US interest rate increase path, took the lead in saying that "the interest rate increase will be suspended unexpectedly". The market is now considering when to stop the interest rate increase after the US interest rate increase of 25 basis points in February, and even how long the high interest rate will last, and weighing the impact on the economy and inflation in all aspects.

After all, according to the latest published interest rate dot-matrix chart, after the interest rate increase of 25 basis points in February, there is a high probability that the interest rate will continue to increase in March. The impact of the interest rate exceeding the limit of 5% on the economy is self-evident. Even though the recently released economic data restored confidence in the soft landing of the US economy, most economists still believe that the US economy will have a mild recession in the first half of the year.

Because the impact of interest rate increases is lagging, even after the United States stops raising interest rates, their real impact may not be felt for some time in the future. Of course, for A-shares, it is not a bad thing. The US recession will only force funds to flow out of the US stock market, thus seeking a safe haven in the global capital market.

After the A-share festival, the

Judging from the pace of foreign capital mopping up A-shares before the holiday, it is not ruled out that international capital has begun to slowly adjust its positions and hedge risks. In a comprehensive way, there are still two trading days left this month, and the probability of foreign investment will continue to sweep A-shares ahead of the holiday. In addition, the pace of interest rate increase in the United States slows down, and our currency toolbox will have more room for operation. This year, there is still a time to reduce the reserve requirement and interest rate.

To sum up, the price trend contains a piece of information, and the external performance is warm. Dago is still optimistic about the A-share performance after the holiday! As for the subsequent rate increase, if the pace slows down as expected, it will form a long-term boost for A-shares. As for the direction, we should pay attention to the fact that promoting the economy depends on consumption and new infrastructure construction, and broadening credit depends on technological growth. After the holiday, the market trend will probably change from value to growth.

。 Let's talk about the technical solution tomorrow! The holiday balance is insufficient, so hurry up and get ready for a good start! Follow me, I am @ trend radar! If you have any questions, welcome to communicate more, and do my best to give you an objective and rational analysis and judgment!