Russias gas supply to Europe will be halved again,

Russia has mastered the absolute initiative in this "fight" between Russia and Europe. Although Russia also tends to maintain cooperation with the EU, its buyers are not necessarily the EU. With the intensification of EU sanctions against Russia, Russia actively uses the natural gas "valve" in hand to "teach the EU a lesson".

Russia just resumed gas supply to the EU on the 21st. However, because the EU's attitude towards Russia is still unsatisfactory to Russia, Russia once again cut the daily gas supply of "Beixi No. 1" by half, citing the need for turbine maintenance.

[P. In the face of a more serious energy crisis, the European Union is not going to be soft, but insists on tightening its belt.

A while ago, the European Commission published a proposal proposing that member states reduce the use of natural gas by 15%. After Russia halved its gas supply to Europe, many EU member states, including France and Slovenia, came forward to support this plan. Croatia not only supports energy conservation, but also plans to double its LNG capacity.

However, the EU is not monolithic. There are also differences within the EU on how to deal with the shortage of natural gas. Portugal said that it was not ready to solve the natural gas supply crisis, and Greece, Cyprus, Spain and other countries also opposed the EU decision. Poland is more isolated and refuses to share its natural gas reserves with other EU countries.

[P. In Poland's view, it is unacceptable to sacrifice its own interests to benefit other countries.

Today, German Foreign Minister Belberk also claimed that the EU would not split because of the lack of natural gas. From the perspective of the divergent views of the EU, the German Foreign Minister was just wishful thinking.

The EU's attraction to its member states is that it can bring greater benefits to the country. Once the existence of the EU poses a serious threat to the interests of its member states, the EU may even face a crisis of maintenance.

Germany and France need the EU. They need the EU's market and labor resources, while some small countries need the EU's economic subsidies. But the problem now is that Germany, the economic leader of the European Union, is in economic difficulties, and Germany's business climate index fell to the lowest level in two years in July. It is no wonder that many EU member states are full of doubts about the EU's decision and choose to sweep their own doors instead of maintaining the overall situation.

In the face of the dilemma of the EU, President Zelenski of Ukraine commented that this is an open natural gas war, a "terrorist act", and Russia is using energy weapons to oppose a unified Europe. Therefore, Zelenski proposed that the EU should impose stricter sanctions on Russia.

[P.

However, even if the EU strengthens the sanctions against Russia, it will not change its predicament, but will probably cause Russia to completely stop breathing, and then the EU will usher in a more severe economic crisis. Take Germany as an example. German industry has been seriously damaged by gas conservation. If Russia directly cuts off the supply, German industry is in danger of being shut down directly. Without the support of economic strength, the euro will be doomed. Once the euro ushers in a precipitous devaluation, the euro area will face economic disaster.

In fact, the euro is already in danger. Some time ago, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar fell below 1 to 1 for the first time, setting a record low in nearly 20 years. Although the European Central Bank chose to raise interest rates, the pure monetary policy has been unable to save the euro. The euro has fallen rather than rose recently.

At the same time, the international financial market has also set off a trend of "shorting the euro", including retail investors. Goldman Sachs expects that if Russia's natural gas supply to the EU is completely interrupted, the downside risk of the euro will further increase.

However, worrying about the euro is a matter for Germany and other EU member states. Poland has the confidence to be independent in the EU. On the one hand, as mentioned above, at least this year, Poland does not have to worry about the problem of insufficient natural gas; On the other hand, Poland is not a country in the euro area and naturally does not care much about the fate of the euro. Germany tried to bind Poland and force Poland to use the euro, but Poland did not buy it and resolutely refused to join the euro zone.