Three things are affecting the mood of Russians! M

Uncle Mu is an international review to analyze the situation in Russia.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than seven months now, and the battlefield may gradually shift from Ukraine to Russia. Of course, on the one hand, this battlefield is a life and death struggle with live ammunition, and on the other hand, it is marked with quotation marks, which means that unstable models will increasingly appear in Russia.

The main reason is that not long ago, Russian officials expressed "three pieces": mobilization+referendum+nuclear deterrence.

This irrefutably proves that Russia is in a relatively difficult situation today, so that it needs to mobilize more people, occupy more land as soon as possible, and use nuclear weapons as a shield for itself to safeguard its vested interests.

In other words, without the "three pieces", the Russian Ukrainian war, which Russia has fought for seven months, may collapse in the near future. This "three piece set" can help you survive and gain some time.

But the historical trend is not based on human will, and so is the process of war. It can be seen from the example of hundreds of thousands of young and middle-aged workers fleeing Russia in a large scale in just a few days that Russia has become a "battlefield" and instability may become the norm.

Obviously, this "three piece set" is flawed, and the Russia Ukraine war will not go on smoothly as expected by Moscow policy makers.

Uncle Mu, based on the judgment of some analysts, believes that

at present, three things are affecting the mood of Russians, which cannot be solved by mobilization, referendum or nuclear threat.

The first thing is Ukraine's military pressing step by step.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive earlier recovered a lot of lost territory, which was an incentive for Russia to quickly vote to protect the fruits of victory. In the past few days of the Russian referendum, the Ukrainians were not idle. They still took counterattacks in Donbas and Kherson and captured many settlements.

Moreover, Ukraine and the West will not recognize the Russian attribute of the referendum area at all, and the battlefield will surely spread here more and more. The Russian people will know sooner or later that the referendum cannot guarantee their safety.

The second thing is that the young and middle-aged people just mentioned have no confidence in the country.

Needless to say, large-scale population outflows in any country in a short time will bode ill for the future. What's more, Russia itself is young and middle-aged. This kind of situation appears around Russians, which brings negative emotions and psychological social impacts to their views on the future of the country, which should be difficult to eliminate in a short time.

The third thing is that Western sanctions have not been lifted, but are being tightened.

The referendum will certainly make the West strengthen sanctions against Russia. Ordinary Russians will be more difficult to travel abroad to enjoy life in the future, and even the quality of life in Russia will decline as expected.

In addition, the gap between Russian industrial enterprises and the West will also increase due to the lack of high-tech technology. These have left a deep impression on Russians in the short term, because they have seen many famous international brands withdraw and replaced them with their own counterfeit goods. After the referendum, the sanctions will be increased, and the impact of similar situations on the Russian people will be more far-reaching. If the economy goes wrong, everyone will be nervous.

And that's what I just said. Referendum+mobilization+nuclear deterrence will not bring peace and security to the Russians, but will gradually make Russia a new battlefield. Instability will increasingly transition from Ukraine to the disputed areas between Russia and Ukraine and then spread to Russia itself.

if Russia can't cease fire as soon as possible and solve the problem through negotiation and dialogue, as Türkiye or China and India have repeatedly called for, Russia's risk exposure will not be small in the future.

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