2022-09-23|来源:souhu

Russian wheat is piled up and difficult to export. There is no surplus production capacity in the international market or new price rise is caused

Russian wheat is piled up and hard to export. The international market has no excess capacity or causes new price rises

Associated Press of Finance, September 23 (Editor Ma Lan) This year, Europe, the United States and other regions suffered from drought, and grain output was hit to varying degrees, but Russia has ushered in a bumper harvest that is difficult to meet in history.

Consulting company SovEcon said that Russia's wheat harvest in this quarter may reach an all-time high of 100 million tons. But the bad news is that due to the export difficulties, these wheat are piled up in Russia, and the huge output cannot be converted into corresponding exports.

According to the estimate of the International Grains Council on Thursday, although the Russian wheat output increased by nearly 6 million tons, the export will remain unchanged at 36.5 million tons. Additional production will remain in Russia.

SovEcon's managing director, Andrey Sizov, said that storage was the main problem of Russian farmers in the past few months. This has never happened since 2017 and 2018. Even though Russian wheat is more competitive than the export prices of the United States, France and other places, due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more and more shipping and export related industries have further evaded the grain trade with Russia. According to the ship arrangement data of Logistic OS, the wheat shipments from Russia in July and August decreased by 22% compared with the same period last year to 6.3 million tons. Shipping companies are reluctant to send their ships to the war zone, while banks are reluctant to open letters of credit for wheat originating in Russia. Insurance companies are also cautious about relevant trade with Russia. In August, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that although Washington and Brussels publicly stated that anti Russian sanctions were not applicable to grain and fertilizer, obstacles in bank settlement, insurance and freight transportation caused by sanctions still existed. Even Russian farmers are not interested in exporting. The strong ruble and high export tax make exporting wheat no longer attractive.

Price may rise According to the Russian Grain Federation, the number of export destinations and traders transporting wheat in Russia has been reduced by half. Although Ukraine has restored the grain export of the Black Sea port through the safe passage, its wheat sales volume is only one third of the normal situation. Before the conflict, Ukraine's wheat export volume was usually 5-6 million tons per month, while the grain output by Ukraine's railway in August was only more than 1 million tons, and the export volume through the Black Sea port was also far below the historical level. The export of the two major wheat producing regions is painfully slow. The Netherlands Cooperative Bank said in a report in August that if the export continues to be sluggish, grain prices may rise. Nahan Cordier, an analyst at Agritel, a French agricultural consulting company, said earlier that the wheat output of the five major exporters outside the Black Sea, namely, except Ukraine and Russia, had barely increased compared with that of last year, which meant that they could not fill the gap between Ukraine and Russia. Agritel warned that Russian wheat exports are crucial to the global market. IKAR predicted that Russia's shipment in September would rise to 4 million tons, but still fell behind the 4.7 million tons at the end of last year. But the problem is that the further escalation of the Russian Ukrainian conflict may deepen the shadow of exports, and Russia's historic harvest may not benefit the world. This article originates from Ma Lan

of the Associated Press of Finance and Economics