[Time related depth] What does the first Russian m

[Global Times comprehensive report] Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on the 21st that the signing of the local military mobilization order began to implement the relevant mobilization, which caused great concern. What Russian personnel and military resources will be included in the local military mobilization, which Reuters calls "the first time after World War II"? What profound impact will it have on the Russian Ukrainian conflict? Russian President Putin and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu revealed a lot of key information in their televised speeches on the same day.

[P. The initial strength of the Ukrainian army was 200000. Uzbekistan lost half of its troops, which is why they mobilized in the fourth wave. During the special military operation, 5937 Russian troops died.

For the necessity of local military mobilization, a paragraph from Shaoyigu can explain it. He said that the West is providing Ukraine with a large number of weapons. "Rather than fighting Ukraine, we are fighting collectively with the West. More than 70 NATO military satellites and more than 200 civilian satellites are being used against Russia. The Western expert headquarters, which includes 150 former soldiers and active servicemen from Western countries, is responsible for directing military operations in Kiev."

When talking about the scope of local military mobilization, Shaoyigu said that those who have served in the mobilization will be mainly those with combat experience and military expertise. He said: "Those who have served in the military and have the necessary military expertise will be mobilized. All conscripts will not be sent to the special military operation zone. College students in non military academies will not be mobilized."

According to Shaoigu, Russia will recruit 300000 reservists from nearly 25 million mobilization resources. Local mobilization for people only accounts for a little more than 1% of the resources that can be mobilized. "We will conduct training and unified arrangement for the mobilized personnel, and then they will start to carry out the task". Shoigu said that the primary task of local mobilization is to control the 1000 km contact line and the "liberated" territory.

Victor Litovkin, a retired Russian colonel and military expert, said that this mobilization will involve all reservists aged 18 to 50. They have the relevant military expertise required to conduct special military operations. Mobilization will not involve those working in the defense industry and other key industries.

Shoigu ordered the implementation of the presidential decree on local mobilization at the ministerial meeting of the Ministry of National Defense on the 21st. Shoigu said: "I have signed instructions, the tasks of the federal entities have been determined, and the General Staff has instructed on the procedures for carrying out mobilization activities in the army and armed forces." Shoigu said that citizens should be informed in a timely manner, and measures to deal with provocations and protection of citizens' reception and gathering places should be strengthened. The mobilized citizens will receive the status of contract soldiers and corresponding salaries.

The military mobilization order contains a huge amount of information

Zhao Huirong, a researcher of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said to the Global Times reporter on the 21st that the release of the local mobilization order marks a new stage of confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and that the intensification of the contradiction between the two sides and the long-term and expansion of confrontation are inevitable. In view of the current tug of war and the new situation of Ukraine's counter offensive, Russia has made tactical adjustments.

"In the future, both sides will be eager to gain absolute advantage in the battlefield, and the possibility of negotiation will become smaller. The intensity of confrontation between the two sides is likely to increase, and the scope is likely to expand." Zhao Huirong said.

Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher of the Russian Institute for Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed in an interview with the Global Times that Russia launched the mobilization order for the first time after World War II, which sent three important messages: first, Russia attaches great importance to Ukraine's strategic value; Second, Russia is still determined enough to achieve its goals and intentions in Ukraine; Third, Russia is already preparing to overcome greater difficulties and fight with the Ukrainian army and NATO behind it.

According to his analysis, the adjustment of Russia's strategic objectives means that Russia needs to carry out more large-scale military operations. This "upgraded" military operation may come this winter, because it will take several months to complete the expansion, training, supply supplement and transformation of the actual control area of the Russian army, and the freezing of the land and rivers in Ukraine in winter will be conducive to the development of mechanized troops.

Does Russia want to find the "life gate" of western military aid weapons?

In addition to recruiting more reservists with combat skills, how to deal with the advanced weapons assisted by the Western military is also something the Russian army is considering.

According to the report of the Russian News on the 21st, Putin said at the national defense industry development conference on the 20th that it is necessary to study the western military equipment used in Ukraine, which will help improve domestic weapons. He said: "As we all know, in order to support Kiev, almost all NATO arsenals have been provided to Ukraine. This means that we must and can study this arsenal, what is there and what is being used for us, so as to improve the performance of our weapons, and according to the experience gained, improve our equipment and weapons when necessary. This must be done as quickly and effectively as possible." Alexei Leonkov, a Russian military expert, said that, first of all, Russia is concerned about the radar used for anti artillery operations, which can detect and destroy the anti UAV system of UAVs. "Hippocampus" and other NATO multi barrel rocket systems are also of great concern. NATO's high-precision artillery system is also noteworthy, including not only high-precision artillery shells, but also artillery itself. Russian experts need to study the multi barrel rockets, self-propelled rockets, anti tank systems, unmanned aerial vehicles and intelligence and communication equipment provided by NATO countries to Ukraine. It is necessary to study "Javelin" and NLAW anti tank missile. Of course, it is also very important to study NATO UAVs and all systems related to communication and information transmission. Russia needs to have UAVs, aviation, satellites and information transmission systems similar to those of NATO.

Zhang Xuefeng, a Chinese military expert, said that studying Western military equipment should have two meanings: first, learn from the weapons and equipment provided by the West to Ukraine, and use its technology to improve Russia's own equipment; The second is to find the weakness of these western equipment and improve Russian equipment to effectively counter and counter Western weapons and equipment.

During the "Military-2022" technical forum held earlier, in addition to the exhibition of Russian advanced weapons and equipment, there was also a special exhibition of Ukrainian military weapons and equipment captured by the Russian army, including a large number of weapons provided to Ukraine by the West, such as the M777 towed howitzer, TB-2 UAV, etc. However, Zhang Xuefeng believes that most of the weapons and equipment provided by the West to Ukraine are not high in technology from the current point of view, and Russia is not unable to develop them. Of course, some electronic equipment and communication equipment in western military aid equipment may be relatively new, which can be a good reference for Russia.

Under the background of western sanctions, the procurement of some chips and components is limited. Therefore, Putin also specially emphasized the issue of localization substitution.

Larissa Shesler, a Russian human rights activist, said: "After mobilizing 300000 people, we will change the balance of power in the conflict. Then we will be likely to make significant progress in Nikolayev, Odessa and Kharkov regions."